Blaise Pascal: Tindol Taarorde Ruleet
Ganndo kiisa mo taarorde ndee ɓuri jeyinteede, tawa ko huunde goɗɗum o etiino mahde.
Pascal (1623–1662) ina ƴeewtunoo masiŋaaji dillere poomtotaako e duuɓi 1650. Taarorde taarotoonde e momtondirgol ɓadingol meere ndee nde jeyinte mo ina gasa ko maama rotoor ruleet; jeyingol ngol ko aada, wonaa ko winndaa e dokimaaji.
Ganndo kiisa oo
Blaise Pascal mahii masiŋ limorde tawa ina jogii duuɓi sappo e jeenay, hollirii njeñtuɗi e jeometri porojektif tawa ko suka, waɗi golle daɗɗe e ɓetol e ngol alaa ko woni e mum, e nder 1654, e nder ɓatakeeji o winndondiri e Pierre de Fermat, o daɗndii “caɗeele poentuuji”: hono no pari fijo sahaa taƴaaɗo feccirtee e nunɗal. Jaabawol maɓɓe, feccude e no porobabilitematematikPorobabiliteSahaa njeñtudi, immorde 0 haa 1 walla 0% haa 100%. Limoore wootere: 1/37 = 2,70%.Tar fof → dañde kala fijoowo foti so tawno fijo oo jokkii, ko ɗoon njaru fodaandumatematikNjaru fodaanduNjeñtudi hakkundeere e kala pari e juuta. −1/37 pari ngam kala pari Orop laawol.Tar fof → iwi. Kala kiisa EV e lowre ndee ko e ɓatakeeji ɗii iwi.
Enee masiŋ ruleet Blaise Pascal woodnoo?
Hakkunde duuɓi 1650, Pascal ina golliino e masiŋ dillere poomtotaako, ina wiyee o mahii taarorde peewnde no feewi nde taarotonoo ko booyi tawa ina momtondira seeɗa. Daartol ngol wiyata taarorde ndee wontii rotoorkuutorɗeRotoorGeɗal taarorde taarotooɗo, roondiiɗo cuuɗi ɗii.Tar fof → ruleet ina ruttee e taariikaaji keewɗi, tee alaa e dokimaaji adii fof ɗi ngol winndaa. Ina gasa yeeyooɓe kasino gure ndiyam cellal e teemedannde 18ɓiire huutorii innde ndee ngam soodnude. Ɗum wonaa ko Laboratuwaar jaɓata e dow seedeeji ɗii.
Porobabilite, e konngi makko e konngi amen
Ɓatakeeji 1654 ɗii yewtaani ruleet, nde woodaano tawo. Ɗi ina naamnoo: fijooɓe ɗiɗo ina njiɗi poentuuji tati ngam dañde kaalis pari fof; ɓe ndarii e 2–1; hono no kaalis ngal feccirtee? Jaabawol Pascal ina huutora ko hannde min inniri njaru fodaandu sarti e miijo ruttotooɗo e lekki jokkondiral fijo ngol ina gasa. Huygens taƴii ɓatakeeji ɗii, e 1657 o saakitii deftere jaŋde adannde e njaru fodaandu. Konngol “expectation” ko makko.
Pascal e Fermat ina daɗnda caɗeele poentuuji: njaru fodaandu ko coggu potngu nokku fijoowo.
Huygens, De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae: winndannde adannde muulaande e njaru fodaandu.
Jakob Bernoulli, Ars Conjectandi: sariya limooje mawɗe.
Ruleet ina sifaa to Paris. Kala njoɓdi ko 36/n − 1: EV = −1/37 (walla −2/38).
Ƴeewndo kii-kaare (χ²) Pearson, hollitiraaɗo taarle ruleet.
Ko woni dow ɗoo fof, e lowre ndee, nder wanngorde (browser).
Pari oo
Miijo Pascal ɓurngo lollude e pari yewtaani ruleet, ko Alla ngo yewti: “pari” oo e nder Pensées, mo hollirata gomɗinal wonde pari mo njoɓdi mum alaa keerol. Ɗum ko miijo njaru fodaandu, ko kanko woni laawol adanngol mo neɗɗo huutorii miijo suɓaade ngam hollirde huunde. Fijooɓe ruleet inniɗo Pascal ngam taarorde ina innda Pascal mo wonaa; ɗo kanko fawii ko kanko hollirɗo no coggu pari anndirtee.
Jalnoore ndee
Pascal mahii taarorde ruleet adannde walla o mahaani, fijo oo ina hollira golle makko goonga no feewi: kuutorgal gorko hollirɗo wonde a waawaa heɓde huunde e meere (dillere poomtotaako waawaa; njaru fodaandu ina reenee), ina huutoree ngam hollirde fijooɓe miliyoŋaaji seeɗa kala hitaande ko ɗuum kadi.
Naamne
O ina yahdunoo e fedde fijooɓe kaalis to Paris e fuɗɗoode duuɓi 1650, ko ɗuum waɗi caɗeele poentuuji yettii mo, rewrude e Chevalier de Méré. Alaa ko winndaa e wonde o fijiima kaalis e nder tiiɗnaare.
Sabu ko daartol moƴƴol, e sabu lollinooɓe kasinooji teemedannde 19ɓiire ina njiɗnoo ngol. Ruttin ngol, kono e winndannde les hello.
Ƴeewndo weltinoowo
O hollirii wonde a waawaa heɓde huunde e meere. Caggal ɗuum, goɗɗo mahi kasino e dow mum.
Iwdi
- Pascal, B. & Fermat, P. Ɓatakeeji e caɗeele poentuuji.
- Huygens, C. De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae.
- Kavanagh, T. M. Dice, Cards, Wheels: A Different History of French Culture.