Yahdu: Jonnde Martingale
Dolaaji sappo e boɗeere, ɓeyditaa ɗiɗi laabi caggal kala majjere, e taabal $500. Taarol e taarol, haa e taarol timminoowol ɗum.
Jonnde simulaasiyoŋ Martingale immorde e kaalis pari $1 000. Dañe tokoose capanɗe nay e go'o, refti majjere jeegom jokkondirɗe e pari jeeɗiɗaɓal salaangal. Jonnde nde ina timmoo e majjere $220 caggal nde min ɓurnoo $410: ɗum ko ko sistem ngal waɗata.
Feere nde
Waɗ pari $10 e boɗeerepariBoɗeerePari njoɓdi fotndi e limooje 18 boɗeeje. E Farayse: rouge.Tar fof →. Caggal majjere, ɓeyditu ɗiɗi laabi. Caggal dañal, ruttu e $10. Keerol taabaltaabalKeerol taabalPari ɓurɗo famɗude e ɓurɗo mawnude jaɓaaɗo. Keerol dow ngol ko ngol dartinta jokkondirɗe pari ɓeydooje ɗiɗi laabi.Tar fof → ko $500, ndeen pariiji ɗi ko 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320, refti pari $640 ngol taabal ngal salata. Majjere jeegom jokkondirɗe ina bonna sistem ngal; kala etagol ina jogii (19/37)⁶ ≈ 1,8% e ɗum, tee jonnde taarle 100 ina jogii hedde etaaɗe 50. Ko fodaa: hedde 60% e bonnude e nder taarle 100, e majjere $630 so ɗum waɗii.
Taarle 1–30
MartingaledabareMartingaleJokkondiral pari ɓeydoowo pari ɗiɗi laabi caggal kala majjere. Ƴeew hello Dabareeji ngam anndude ko ngal waɗata e ko ngal waɗataa.Tar fof → ndenndaande: jokkondiral majjere gooto haa tati, kala timminaa e dañal hokkoowal +$10. Haa taarol 30 min keɓii dañe 17, kala ina uddita fodde, tee min ɓurii $170. Pari ɓurngol mawnude haa jooni ko $80 caggal majjere tati. Ina wa'i no masiŋ muulowo kaayitaaji $10.
Taarle 31–60
Ko nanndi e ɗum kadi, e fodde wootere majjere nay (pariiji haa $160, refti dañal) nde waɗi $310 e taabal seeɗa sahaa tee wa'i no cuusal. Caggal taarle 60: podde 41 timmii, min ɓurii $410, tee ko kaalis parikaalisKaalis pariKaalis fof ko seŋaa ngam fijde. Toppitagol kaalis pari ko ñaawde ko foti waɗeede e kala pari e kala jonnde.Tar fof → ngol ɓuri jippaade gila taarol 30 ko $1 040. Histogram kala jonnde Martingale ina wa'i non e ko ɓuri heewde e njuuteeka mum.
Taarle 61–66
M M M M M M. Pariiji 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, 320: $630 majji. Pari garoyngol ko $640; keerol ngol ko $500. Sistem ngal bonii. Min mbaawi waɗde pari $500 (tee so dañii, min heddoto e majjere $130 e nder fodde nde) walla ruttaade e $10 jaɓa majjere ndee. ƁaleejepariƁaleerePari njoɓdi fotndi e limooje 18 ɓaleeje. E Farayse: noir.Tar fof → walla seerotaarordeSeeroSuudu haako wootere nde hay pari njoɓdi fotndi, sappo e ɗiɗi walla kolon kuuɓataa; ko ɗum woni iwdi ɓural kasino. Ina noddee kadi: seero gooto, 0.Tar fof → jeegom jokkondirɗe ina njogii porobabilitematematikPorobabiliteSahaa njeñtudi, immorde 0 haa 1 walla 0% haa 100%. Limoore wootere: 1/37 = 2,70%.Tar fof → 1,8% e kala fodde. Min taarnoo hedde podde 45. Sahaa yottaade ɗoo e nokku e nder podde 45 ko hedde 55%. Ɗum wonaa kisal bonngal; ko medyan.
- p10 −$1 000
- p25 −$1 000
- medyan −$1 000
- p75 +$790
- p90 +$1 690
Hiisa
Ɓurɗo $410 caggal taarle 60, majjere $220 caggal 66. Kaalis pariyaaɗo fof: hedde $2 100 e taarle 66, tawi ko $660 e fijoowo pari fotɗi $10. Majjere fodaandematematikMajjere fodaandeNjaru fodaandu fiyaandu e kaalis pariyaaɗo fof; ko hakkundeere kaalis majjataako nder jonnde walla nder sahaa.Tar fof → e $2 100 kaalis pariyaaɗo fofkaalisKaalis pariyaaɗo fofKawrital kaalis pariyaaɗo nder jonnde walla sahaa, limtaa kadi kaalis dañaaɗo pariyaaɗo kadi. Ina noddee kadi: handle, action.Tar fof → ko $57; ko waɗi −$220 ina les ɗum hedde tataɓal seerndu ndenndaandumatematikSeerndu ndenndaanduRaasin karee wariyaas; ko woɗɗeende aadanteende njeñtudi e njaru fodaandu.Tar fof →, ɗum alaa ko haawni e sistem mo senndugol mum jogii laacol nano juutngol. So min ndarnoo e taarol 60 e keerol dañaldabareKeerol dañalFaandaare dañal tonnditaande adii, nde njottinoto-ɗaa jonnde.Tar fof → $400, min njaltanno e ɓurde $410, tee jonnde garoynde ndee jogitannoo 1,8% gootol ngol e kala fodde.
Ko jonnde nde hollata
Martingale ina waylita pari 48,65% wonta jokkondiral dañoowal 98% e podde mum tee majjinoowal initeejikaalisInitePari fuɗɗoode mo sistem walla fijoowo gollirta. Jokkondirɗe pari ina cifee e initeeji ngam ɗi kuutoroo e kala taabal.Tar fof → 63 e 2% heddiiɗo. Waylitaa majjere fodaande e kala dolaar; ina keewna dolaaji ɗi. Fijoowo pari fotɗi mo ɓadinoo min waɗi pari tataɓal ko min mbaɗi, tee majjini, e hakkundeere, tataɓal ko min majjini. Fijoowo huutortooɗo ngal sistem duuɓi gooto ina daña ko ɓuri heewde e kikiiɗe tee ina majjina hitaande nde.
No majjereeji jokkondirɗi ngarirta sahaa kala
Pari njoɓdi fotndi e taarorde seero gooto ina majja taarle 19 e 37. Kala gongol ko porobabilite kala taarle jokkondirɗe limtaaɗe majja, e ko fijoowo Martingale, ɓeydoowo pari laabi ɗiɗi caggal kala majjere, majjini haa ndeen.
| majjereeji jokkondirɗi | sahaa | hedde 1 e | majjinaaɗo haa jooni | pari garoowo |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51,4% | 2 | $1 | $2 |
| 2 | 26,4% | 4 | $3 | $4 |
| 3 | 13,5% | 7 | $7 | $8 |
| 4 | 7,0% | 14 | $15 | $16 |
| 5 | 3,6% | 28 | $31 | $32 |
| 6 | 1,8% | 55 | $63 | $64 |
| 7 | 0,94% | 106 | $127 | $128 |
| 8 | 0,48% | 207 | $255 | $256 |
| 9 | 0,25% | 403 | $511 | $512 |
| 10 | 0,13% | 784 | $1 023 | $1 024 |
| 11 | 0,065% | 1527 | $2 047 | $2 048 |
| 12 | 0,034% | 2974 | $4 095 | $4 096 |
| 13 | 0,017% | 5792 | $8 191 | $8 192 |
| 14 | 0,0089% | 11279 | $16 383 | $16 384 |
| 15 | 0,0046% | 21965 | $32 767 | $32 768 |
Porobabilite ndee ko 19/37 fiilaaɗo e hoore mum laabi foti e majjereeji, limtaaɗi gila e taarol gootol anndaangol. Jonnde juutnde ina jogii taarle keewɗe ɗe jokkondiral ngal waawi fuɗɗaade, ɗum noon e nder kikiiɗe gootol ina ɓuri wonde no feewi ko gongol gootol hollata.
Naamne
Majjere jeenay ina bonna ngal, wonaa jeegom: 0,25% e kala fodde, e $5 110 majjaaɗo so ɗum waɗii. Yanagol ɓurngol ŋakkude, yanagol ɓurngol toowde, −2,70% gootol.
Ngol dañanno 48,65% e sahaaji tee heddinanno fodde nde e −$130 tigi. Alaa ko moƴƴi waɗeede caggal Martingale bonnde; ina woodi tan pari ngol suɓataa caggal.
Eey, ngam ndee jonnde. Wonaa ngam hakkundeere jonɗe ɗee fof.
Weltaare e Matematik
Etu ɗum hoore maa adii. Kala jaabawol ina suuɗii; uddit ɗum so a heblii.
E taabal $1 haa $500, fijoowo MartingaledabareMartingaleJokkondiral pari ɓeydoowo pari ɗiɗi laabi caggal kala majjere. Ƴeew hello Dabareeji ngam anndude ko ngal waɗata e ko ngal waɗataa.Tar fof → ina fuɗɗoo e $1 e boɗeerepariBoɗeerePari njoɓdi fotndi e limooje 18 boɗeeje. E Farayse: rouge.Tar fof → e taarorde seerotaarordeSeeroSuudu haako wootere nde hay pari njoɓdi fotndi, sappo e ɗiɗi walla kolon kuuɓataa; ko ɗum woni iwdi ɓural kasino. Ina noddee kadi: seero gooto, 0.Tar fof → gooto. Majjere jokkondirɗe njelu ina ndarna ɓeydagol laabi ɗiɗi ngol, ko foti ko majjaa ndeen, ko laabi njelu ɗum ina waɗa?
Hollu jaabawol ngol
Jaabawol Majjere jeenay: $511 majjaaɗo, pari garoowo kadi ina wonnoo $512. Ina waɗa laawol gootol e hedde jokkondire 403.
Pariiji ɗii ko 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 e 256: hawtaa $511. Sappoɓo oo ina wonnoo $512, ɓuri keerol ngol. Pari $500 dañɗo ina heddina fijoowo oo majjere $11; majjuɗo ina heddina mo majjere $1 011.
Boɗeere ina majja e porobabilite 19/37, ndeen majjere jeenay jokkondirɗe ina njogii porobabilite (19/37)⁹ ≈ 0,25%, laawol gootol e hedde jokkondire 403. Jokkondiral timmungal kala ina daña $1, ndeen fijoowo oo ina fodaa hedde $402 dañe famɗuɗe hade majjere $511 wootere ndee, 2,70% kaalis pariyaaɗo fof kadi ina majja e hakkundeere.
E taarorde seero ɗiɗi porobabilite ndee ko (20/38)⁹, laawol gootol e hedde 323. Bollman (2021) ina winndi “hedde 1 e 833”, ɗum ko (18/38)⁹, porobabilite dañe jeenay jokkondirɗe.
Ƴeewndo weltinoowo
Dañe tokoose capanɗe nay e go'o e majjere mawnde wootere. Ɗum ko sistem ngal fof.
Iwdi
- Ethier, S. N. The Doctrine of Chances: Probabilistic Aspects of Gambling.
- Thorp, E. O. “Optimal gambling systems for favorable games.”