Taarle Ruleet Ceertuɗe
Kala taarol ina fuɗɗoo e meere.
Njeñtudi taarol gootol alaa hay doole e ngol garoowol. Kala limto e ngal lowre ina tuggi e ndeen goonga.
Ko ceertugol firti
p(boɗeerepariBoɗeerePari njoɓdi fotndi e limooje 18 boɗeeje. E Farayse: rouge.Tar fof → e taarol 2 | boɗeere e taarol 1) = p(boɗeere) = 18/37. Tuugnaade e ko ɓenni waylataa hay huunde. Limooje wulɗemiijo juumɗoLimoore wulndeLimoore yaltunde ko ɓuri ko fodaa ko ɓooyaani. E taarorde peewnde, nde anndintaa hay huunde.Tar fof →, limooje jaanguɗemiijo juumɗoLimoore jaangundeLimoore nde yaltaani ko ɓooyi e taarle keewɗe. E taarorde peewnde, alaa ko nde holli e taarle garooje.Tar fof → e nooneeji “hewtiiɗi” ko sifaaji ko ɓenni, wonaa anndinde ko arata, kala e majji kadi ina tuggi e wiyde fenaande wonde taarle ruleet ceertaaki. E laawol ganndal, porobabilitematematikPorobabiliteSahaa njeñtudi, immorde 0 haa 1 walla 0% haa 100%. Limoore wootere: 1/37 = 2,70%.Tar fof → denndaangal kala jokkondiral ko fiɓondiral porobabiliteeji taarol gootol, ɗum tan woni ko newni sariya fiɓondiral e hello porobabilite.
Ko waɗi “taarle ruleet ceertaaki” ko fenaande e ɓalli
BalkuutorɗeBalBal tokoosal werlaangal e laawol ngol e laawol rotoor ngol. Balli jamaanu hannde ko ivorine walla Teflon, 18–21 mm.Tar fof → ngal ina werlee e jungo e yaawre waylotoonde e sappaɓe meeteer e kala segonde; ina taara laawol ngol buubri mum ina waylitoo e pooɗondiral e leñol; ina fiya gooto e deflektooruujikuutorɗeDeflektoorGooto e haɗooji njamndi woodɗi e tellorde ɗi saŋkitinta bal ina jippoo. Ina noddee kadi: kanuu, diyamaa, pinngu.Tar fof → jeetati ɗii e ooñol ngol ɗum fof tabitini; ina diwa e dow ceerlekuutorɗeCeeralCeerndorgal njamndi hakkunde cuuɗi ɗiɗi e taarorde.Tar fof → ɗe doole mum e bal ngal e 1 m/s ko jiiɓru e maanaa ganndal. Hay huunde e njeñtudi ɓennundi heddotaake e ɗeen fof. RotoorkuutorɗeRotoorGeɗal taarorde taarotooɗo, roondiiɗo cuuɗi ɗii.Tar fof → ngoo ko rotoor gootoo ngoo, ɗum tan woni nokku ɗo jokkondiral waawi suuɗaade, ɗum kadi ko naamnal ooñol taarorde.
Ko ɗum addata
Kala sistem pari ko golle njeñtuɗi ɓennuɗi. So njeñtuɗi ɓennuɗi njogaaki hay kabaaru e taarol garoowol, alaa golle mbaawɗe moƴƴinde njaru fodaandumatematikNjaru fodaanduNjeñtudi hakkundeere e kala pari e juuta. −1/37 pari ngam kala pari Orop laawol.Tar fof → pari garoowo. Ɗum ko mbaadi ganndal kaaldigal luurdungal sistemji, ɗum kadi woni ko waɗi hello dabareeji ina mbaawi winndeede ado sistemji ɗi peewnaaka tawo: seedee ngee tuggaaki e sariya ngal.
Nde ɗum waawi woorde
Si wonaa so taarorde ndee ooñiino e ɓalli walla accugol kurupiye ina anndee ado. Ɗeen ko yiyannde Laboratuwaar. Hay toon, jokkondiral ngal ko e ɓalli, wonaa e njeñtuɗi ɓennuɗi: suudukuutorɗeSuuduGootel e cuuɗi 37 limoraaɗi e rotoor. Ina noddee kadi: wenndu, kopp.Tar fof → ooñiindu ina ɓura sahaa e kala taarol, wonaa caggal nde “jaangi”. Keɓe taarle ɓennuɗe ina ngonata seedeeji e taarorde ndee, ɗum ko huunde woɗnde e mbaadi e njeñtuɗi.
Ceertugol ko miijo tuggaaɗo
Fiɓondirde sahaaji ina newnaa tan so huuɓe ɗee ina ceertii, taarorde ruleet kadi ina heɓa ndeen hakke e ɓalli. E nokkuuji goɗɗi ina foti ƴeewteede. E 1999 Sally Clark, awokaa Angalteer, ñaawaa wonde wartii ɓiɗɗo mum worɓe ɗiɗo ɓooɓe. Doktoor sukaaɓe wiyi juri oo wonde sahaa maayde ɗiɗi ɓooɓe e nder lappol e galle hono makko ko 1 e nder miliyoŋaaji 73, limoore nde o heɓi so o fiɓondirii 1 e nder 8 543, sahaa wootere ndee, e hoore mum. Fiɓondirde ɗum e hoore mum ina hiisa maayde ɗiɗi ɗee hono taarle ɗiɗi taarorde. Kono musiɓɓe ina njogii gene e galle gootal, ɗuum waɗi caggal maayde ɓiɗɗo e nder lappol, ɗiɗaɓere ina ɓura sahaa no feewi e no aranndeere woniri. Royal Statistical Society wiyi ɗum e ɓanngal e 2001, ñaawoore Clark ittaa e ñaawoore ɗimmere e 2003, caggal nde seedeeji safaara ɗi kollaaka ɓanngini. Hunacek (2025) ina huutoroo ndee dosiye ngam jannginde sariya ngal ngoo hello tuggi: fiɓondir ko ceertii tan.
Ceertugol e taabalji RNG
Taabalji porogaraam ina ƴetta kala njeñtudi e masiŋ limooje sahaa seedaaɗo, ƴeewtaaɗo ngam ndee ngonka tigi: ceertugol jokkondirɗi e miliyoŋaaji ƴettugol. Taarorde dillotoonde ndee ko cuɗi tan. Taabal RNG hollirngal jokkondiral ina woora seedee ngee, ɗum ko ƴeewndo ɓurngo tiiɗde e kala ko fijoowo waawi waɗde.
Naamne
Wonaa e suudu. Tee, e tabitaare mawnde, e geɗal taarordetaarordeGeɗal taarordeCeeɓnde cuuɗi takkondirɗi e taarorde, ceertunde e mooftere e tapi.Tar fof → ɓurɗum sahaa; ƴeew maandeeji kurupiye e Laboratuwaar. Studiooji ina mbaylita accugol ngol ngam haɗde ɗum.
Ngam ƴeewtude ooñol e ujunaaji taarle, e laawol miijo. Ngam taarol garoowol, alaa.
Weltaare e Matematik
Etu ɗum hoore maa adii. Kala jaabawol ina suuɗii; uddit ɗum so a heblii.
Pari waɗaangal hade taarle ɗiɗi ina yoɓa njoɓdi fotndi so limoore ɗimmere ndee ɓurii mawnude adannde ndee. Fotde ina majja, 0 ina limtee ko limoore ɓurnde famɗude. Hol coggu mum e taarorde Orop?
Hollu jaabawol ngol
Jaabawol 2,70% tigi, gootum e boɗeerepariBoɗeerePari njoɓdi fotndi e limooje 18 boɗeeje. E Farayse: rouge.Tar fof →.
Taarle ɗiɗi ɗee ko ceertuɗe, ɗum waɗi limoore ɗimmere ndee ina waawi ɓurde adannde ndee hono no nde waawi ustaade heen. Ko heddii tan ko fotde, limoore wootere laabi ɗiɗi, e porobabilitematematikPorobabiliteSahaa njeñtudi, immorde 0 haa 1 walla 0% haa 100%. Limoore wootere: 1/37 = 2,70%.Tar fof → 1/37.
Ɗum waɗi pari ngal ina daña e porobabilite (1 − 1/37)/2 = 18/37, tigi porobabilite boɗeere, coggu mum ko 2,70% gootum.
So a waawnoo waɗde ngal caggal yi'ude limoore adannde ndee, ina wonayno dokkal: caggal 0 ina daña laabi 36 e nder 37. Ɗum ko waɗi pari hono ngal ina foti uddeede hade taarol adanngol.
Ƴeewndo weltinoowo
Kala taarol ina fuɗɗoo e meere. Kala limto ɗoo ina tuggi e ɗum.
Iwdi
- Feller, W. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1.
- Small, M. & Tse, C. K. “Predicting the outcome of roulette.”
- Hunacek, M. Quantitative Literacy Through Games and Gambling.
- Royal Statistical Society. “Statement regarding statistical issues in the Sally Clark case.”