Kelly Criterion e Ruleet

Kelly criterion

John Kelly (1956) naamnii no fijoowo kaalis jogiiɗo ɓural anndaangal foti ndenndude pariiji mum ngam ɓeydude kaalis parikaalisKaalis pariKaalis fof ko seŋaa ngam fijde. Toppitagol kaalis pari ko ñaawde ko foti waɗeede e kala pari e kala jonnde.Tar fof → makko e juuta ko ɓuri fof. Jaabawol ngol, ngam pari yoɓoyta b e 1, e porobabilitematematikPorobabiliteSahaa njeñtudi, immorde 0 haa 1 walla 0% haa 100%. Limoore wootere: 1/37 = 2,70%.Tar fof → dañde p e porobabilite majjude q = 1 − p, ko waɗde pari feccere f* = (bp − q) / b kaalis pari. f* ɓurɗo seero firti waɗ pari e feccere nde; seero walla ko ɓuri les seero firti hoto waɗ pari. Kelly ina golloo ka Bell Labs, binndol makko, “A new interpretation of information rate”, waɗi caɗeele ɗee nder teori kabaaru Claude Shannon: fijoowo kaalis heɓoowo kabaruuji e laawol jogiingol bayle, e kot potɗi, waawataa ɓeydude kaalis pari mum ko ɓuri yaawngal laawol ngol ina rondoo kabaaru. E 1961 Leo Breiman hollii pari Kelly, e juuta, ina timma ina ɓuri kala dabare woɗnde ceertunde e mum, ina yettina faandaare tabitinaande e ko ɓadii sahaa ɓurɗo famɗude.

Pari Kelly e ruleet

Ngam boɗeerepariBoɗeerePari njoɓdi fotndi e limooje 18 boɗeeje. E Farayse: rouge.Tar fof →: b = 1, p = 18/37, q = 19/37; f* = (18/37 − 19/37)/1 = −1/37. Ngam limoore wooterepariLimoore wootereLimoore wootere tan, ina yoɓa 35:1.Tar fof →: b = 35, p = 1/37, q = 36/37; f* = (35/37 − 36/37)/35 = −1/1295. Pari ndenndaandi kala ina rokka feccere Kelly ɓurnde les seero, sabu pari kala ina jogii ɓural ɓurngal les seero, pari ɓurndi moƴƴude ngam ɓeydagol ko seero. Pari Kelly e ruleet ko laawol formil ngam wiyde ko hello ɓural kasino wiyata: alaa ɗowluɗi ɗi pari jogiindi fodaande ɓurnde les seero waawi ɓeydude kaalis pari.

To Kelly nafi

Fijooɓe taarorɗe ooñiiɗe ina njogii ɓural e caɗeele ndenndugol pari. Jagger, García-Pelayo en e Eudaemons en fof ina poti taƴde ko ɓe waɗata pari e ɓural mum ɓe ƴeewtii, waɗde pari seeɗa ina majjina ɓural ngal, waɗde pari keewɗo ina waawi majjinde kaalis fof ado ɓural ngal yiyeede. Ngam suudukuutorɗeSuuduGootel e cuuɗi 37 limoraaɗi e rotoor. Ina noddee kadi: wenndu, kopp.Tar fof → yaltotoondu laabi 1 e nder 30, Kelly ina wiya 0,57% kaalis pari e taarol kala e limoore nde: e $10 000, hono $57 e taarol, ngam ɓeydagol ko ina heewi wonde hono 0,054% e taarol, walla ×1,7 e nder taarle 1 000. Dañal hakkundeejo ko laabi ɗiɗi ɗum, 0,11% e taarol, kono Kelly ina faandii kaalis pari ko ina heewi wonde, wonaa hakkundeejo oo, mo jokkondire seeɗa e baraka ɓeydata. Feccere Kelly ko ko ɓuri suɓeede e golle sabu hiisa ɓural ngal alaa hoolaare.

Fijooɓe Ruleet LollirɓeEudaemons ɓen

Ko heewi wonde e hakkundeere

Hakkunde kaalis pari ko heewi wonde e hakkundeejo oo ko yaajɗo. Ƴettu suudu yaltotoondu laabi 1 e nder 25, ɓural 44%, limoore nde Thorp rokki ngam kuuɓal makko. Kelly ina waɗa e mayru pari 1,26% kaalis pari. Caggal taarle 1 000 kaalis pari ko heewi wonde ɓeydiima hono laabi 11,5, tawa hakkundeejo oo, mo jokkondire seeɗa e baraka keewɗo ɓanti, ɓeydiima hono laabi 249. Waɗde pari ɓurɗo Kelly ina ɓeyda hakkundeere ndee ina ustoo njeñtudi ko heewi wonde: e pari Kelly laabi ɗiɗi, kaalis pari ko heewi wonde ina ɓeydoo laabi ɗiɗi tan, e pari Kelly laabi ɗiɗi e feccere ina ustoo, hay so tawii pari kala ina jogii tawon ɓural 44%. Waɗde pari ɓurɗo famɗude coggu mum ko seeɗa: feccere pari ndee ina hettina hono tataɓe nay e nder ɓeydagol ngol.

So ɓural ngal ko sikke

Kelly ina sikki ɓural ngal ko anndaangal. E taabal ngal ko hiisaangal, hiisa ngal kadi ko heewi ina ɓuri toownude. Misal Epstein, mahaaɗo e 44% Thorp, ko limoore yaltii laabi 49 e nder taarle 1 225 taarorde seerotaarordeSeeroSuudu haako wootere nde hay pari njoɓdi fotndi, sappo e ɗiɗi walla kolon kuuɓataa; ko ɗum woni iwdi ɓural kasino. Ina noddee kadi: seero gooto, 0.Tar fof → ɗiɗi: laabi 1 e nder 25, ɓural 44%, pari Kelly 1,26%. Kono taarorde seero ɗiɗi peewnde ina jogii limooje 38, ko ɓuri yaltude e majje ina yettoo 49 walla ko ɓuri e nder taarle 1 225 hono laabi gooto e nder jeenay. Limoore ɓurnde yaltude e kala binndol ko nde baraka ɓuri wallude kadi, ɗum noon hay suudu ooñiindu goonga ina wayi e binndol ko ɓuri no woni: ɗum ko “bone dañoowo”. So tawii suudu ndu ooñaani, pari Kelly ko pari majjotoondi 5,26% e hakkundeere tan. Jaabawol ɗe ɓuri heewde ko waɗde pari feccere Kelly e jokkude limde haa ɓural ngal hiswa e binndol kesol (ƴeew No Taarorde Ruleet Ooñiinde Anndirtee).

Yimɓe jogiiɓe ɓural

Anndude ɓural ngal wonaa huutoraade ngal no moƴƴi. Haghani e Dewey (2016) rokkii yimɓe 61 $25 kala gooto ngam waɗde pari feccere waktu e kaalis mo ɓe mbiyaa ina yalta yeeso 60% sahaa, tawa kaalis dañaaɗo ina haaɗi e $250 (fijooɓe anndi keerol ngol tan nde ɓe njettii ɗum). Kelly ina wiya waɗ pari 20% kaalis pari e yeeso sahaa kala, winndooɓe ɓee ina hiisa pariiji tabitɗi 10–20% ina njettoo keerol ngol hono 95% sahaa. Fijooɓe 21% tan njettii ɗon. 28% majjinii kaalis mum fof, 18 e nder 61 ɓee waɗii fof mum pari e weddugol gootol, hono tataɓal timmini les $25 ɗo ɓe puɗɗorii, njoɓdikaalisNjoɓdiKo pari dañndi ruttata, wiyaa “X e 1” ɓeydaa e pari ruttaaɗo.Tar fof → hakkundeeri ndii ko $91. Yimɓe joy tan e nder 61 ɓee nanno Kelly criterion. So a jogii ɓural, ɗowluɗi pariiji ɗii ina taƴa so a hettinii ngal; so a jogaaki ngal, hono e taarorde peewnde, alaa ɗowluɗi wallata.

Ko huutoree nden

So alaa ɓural, ndenndugol pari ko naamnal bujee, wonaa naamnal ɓeydagol: pari = ko jaɓɗaa ndonkude e taarol kala, ɓaŋngol e bujee waktu e yaawngal taabal ngal (hello toppitagol kaalis pari). Ko Kelly rokki fijoowo jaɓɗo ko laaɓal jaabawol mum: seero. Kala ko waɗɗaa pari ɓurɗo seero ko coggu fijo, ko aan suɓi ɗum, wonaa formil feewnitiiɗo ɗum.

Konngol e feccere Kelly e “toppitagol kaalis”

Sistemji njeeyeteeɗi hono “Kelly ngam ruleet” waajotooɗi feccere tabitnde kaalis pari e pari kala ko pari fotɗidabarePari fotɗiWaɗde pari gooto kala taarol. Ko ɗum kala jokkondiral pari kawrondirtee.Tar fof → e pari ustotooɗo. Ina majjina 2,70% kaalis pariyaaɗo fofkaalisKaalis pariyaaɗo fofKawrital kaalis pariyaaɗo nder jonnde walla sahaa, limtaa kadi kaalis dañaaɗo pariyaaɗo kadi. Ina noddee kadi: handle, action.Tar fof → kadi, sabu pari oo ina ustoo nde majjataa, ina leelna majjinde kaalis fof, wonaa ina waɗa ɗum ko waawaa waɗde. Ko laawol moƴƴol ngam juutinde bujee; wonaa Kelly, kam ina wiya daro.

Dabare Ruleet Pari Fotɗi

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